.22LR- Can I Get Some Plinkin' Ammo?

Elusive Ballistic Wampum

The above title is an often asked question where we work. It has swelled into an overwhelming disgruntled chorus of customers wanting to go to the range. Whether it is a father who'd like to teach his kids how to shoot, a lady wanting practice without wasting precious 9mm rounds, or a prepper who is convinced that the "gubmint is gonna cut off supply," everyone wants more .22 ammo. The most frustrating aspect to me, is seeing first time buyers with their shiny new Henry rifle not be able to go enjoy their purchase as one could easily have done last summer. So as one who worked during Hurricane Katrina (similar market effect) at an Alabama gun shop and has a decent grasp of the human psyche, I will offer my hypothesis.

Firstly, the US government hasn't "bought up all the ammo." According to Hornady, a major player in the ammo business, only 5% of their production goes to gov't sales. That means Mr. and Mrs. regular citizen purchase MOST of their output. Ah, but they don't make rimfire ammo do they? Well CCI, leader of the rimfire pack, churns out about 4 million rounds of "unobtainium" per day. That is one out of the four majors (Winchester Olin, Remington UMC, Hornady, CCI/Federal ATK) producing 28 million cartridges each and every week.

Do you really think folks shoot it all up? I don't think so. When our shooting public cuts back on .223, .308, .45ACP, and 9mm consumption they usually use a .22 for cheaper practice. But these days more folks are buying and fewer are actually shooting as they don't know when store shelves will be replenished. I saw at the Tulsa Gun Show folks asking (and getting) $80 per 500 round brick. That is four times retail, yet folks buying it seemed happy that it was available. Economists refer to this as the price elasticity of demand. When everybody wants the same thing at the same time prices will go up as a way of rationing the scarce item and enriching those lucky enough to have a decent quantity on hand.

Those with a clear memory will remember that such activity inevitably leads to market saturation. Gasoline, Beanie Babies, or bullets: if enough money is poured into one area, the market will eventually settle back down to rational levels. It has been almost 8 months now, so I predict in 5 months or less we will see an ocean of ammo available to those still needing more. By then a full year will have elapsed since the Newtown Massacre, all the preppers will already be stocked up, and the ammo entrepreneurs currently "flipping it" won't have any suckers left.

As noted earlier, a shortage of any of the major defense calibers in turn leads to a .22LR shortage. One should be seeing more and more .223 available this summer. That is a welcome sign that we are over the hump. Without a ban on AR-15s we see a trickle down effect. Less folks are interested in plunking down $1200 on a complex rifle, and those that did have eased up on their vulture-ish shopping habits. I'm really hoping the rest of the firearms get caught up this fall, so we can have more ammo for all starting early January.

Most everyone in this business would agree that we'd sure settle for a slow down.
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September 21, 2014

Update: All major calibers such as .223, .308, .45ACP, and 9mm are readily available; still difficult to obtain .22LR except online or gun shows (paying $50 or more per brick). All major variants of AR-15 are now available at rock bottom prices and most wholesale distributors are stocked deep on guns of all variety (excluding S&W revolvers, Colt SAA, and limited run items). This is a buyer's market if ever there's been one. I think demand will remain steady for the foreseeable future, with no major legislation proposed or implemented.

So what is an AR15?

The current bunch of whiz kids in Washington, DC and in several big cities often cite the horrible, ghastly, scary black guns known as "AR15" rifles as the weapon of choice for hoodlums and mentally ill killers.  What is often missed in their discussions is that these guns account for a TINY percentage of homicides and are near impossible to conceal for use in armed robbery.  In fact, more people are beaten to death each year than die from shotgun AND rifle fire.  The most used murder weapon is and always will be, the handgun. Let us save discussion on that for a later date.

Back to the black rifles.  These AR15's are often called "weapons of war" by ignorant politicians (Feinstein, Obama, Bloomberg, et al) who treat cosmetics and function as though they were one in the same. Yes, Colt's Defense manufactures guns for the U.S. military. NO, you and I are not permitted to buy the same guns. Civilians are able to purchase the neutered semi-auto version, but not the select-fire M4 Carbine issued to troops in Afghanistan. While barrels, grips, sights and other parts may be identical-- the fact remains that an AR15's fire control group (trigger, hammer, safety) or "guts" is what separates an "M4 clone" from the select-fire real McCoy. Why would politicians want to ban a semi-auto rifle that is statistically insignificant in regards to crime? We have to dig a little deeper.

Ever since the days of old, when trappers and mountain men journeyed deeper into the frontier, they always went armed with the same (if not better) guns used by our boys in the Army. From colonial volunteers, to Davy Crocket at the Alamo-- from the fields of Gettysburg, all the way up to the Korean War-- citizens were trusted with the arms used by our infantry to defend their homes and encouraged to practice at the range.  It was not until government planners adopted a "full-auto, pray & spray" mentality during Vietnam that our servicemen used something not available for civilian purchase after the war.  Many at the time, and still today, see this as a step backwards.  The M16/AR15 family of rifles chambered in .223 Rem/5.56 NATO was engineered as a counterbalance to 'bad guys' shooting us up with an AK47. 

I hope to have gained your curiosity and attention with this post.  TO BE CONTINUED...

Back in the saddle

So in case you have missed what's happened since my last post:

1. I recovered from an unusual infection.
2. We celebrated Thanksgiving in Coronado & Christmas at home.
3. The "gun debate" was reopened after a lunatic shot 26 folks in Newtown, CT. Feinstein, Obama, Biden and their Leftist Media handlers take it as an opportunity to demonize an inanimate object that accounts for fewer deaths per year than hands/feet or hammers. Typical I suppose.


While I am very thankful for #'s 1 & 2, #3 has created quite a headache for us at my workplace. My job is selling guns and ammo at Bass Pro. It is the closest thing to a 'perfect job' that I will not mention the pay, hours, or commute on Southern California's freeways. I really enjoy being a gun dealer.

Let me give you some numbers to get an idea of our volume since the CT Massacre. Prior to December, selling 50+ guns in a weekend was quite an achievement. Sure, we'd blow them out on Black Friday, but that was an exceptional event. Well, three weekends ago, we sold 85 guns on Saturday, then 92 guns Sunday. Our sales volume for the Hunting Department beat out entire stores including the Springfield flagship store (10X the size of our Hunting Dept). There were only 4 stores that matched us that weekend.

First, we sold out of AR15 rifles and the .223 ammo to feed them. Next, we sold out of ammo the following week for most popular calibers, and then ran out of pistols (except single-action revolvers and .22s). As of Friday afternoon, there was no .45ACP; .40; 9mm; .380; .357mag; .44mag; .308; or .223 ammo in our store. Customers are being told check back in 30 to 60 days, but I don't see us having pre-December levels of product available till summer.

So to keep up with this high demand, I have been re-assigned to handle emails and customer inquiries. My boss forwards anything gun related to me and I, the firearm specialist, respond (usually we're sold out) to what they are looking for. It has been much more lively than just stocking shelves and serving counter customers. I had the pleasure of selling one gentleman 6 Colt rifles and his buddy 4 of the same. Receipts were large for those two purchases.  The boss and I hope that business calms down sometime soon so that our regular customers can find what they need.

If you have any questions about firearms, stay tuned... I am hoping to steer this page towards a "Gun Blog" theme at my family's request.