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| Elusive Ballistic Wampum |
The above title is an often asked question where we work. It has swelled into an overwhelming disgruntled chorus of customers wanting to go to the range. Whether it is a father who'd like to teach his kids how to shoot, a lady wanting practice without wasting precious 9mm rounds, or a prepper who is convinced that the "gubmint is gonna cut off supply," everyone wants more .22 ammo. The most frustrating aspect to me, is seeing first time buyers with their shiny new Henry rifle not be able to go enjoy their purchase as one could easily have done last summer. So as one who worked during Hurricane Katrina (similar market effect) at an Alabama gun shop and has a decent grasp of the human psyche, I will offer my hypothesis.
Firstly, the US government hasn't "bought up all the ammo." According to Hornady, a major player in the ammo business, only 5% of their production goes to gov't sales. That means Mr. and Mrs. regular citizen purchase MOST of their output. Ah, but they don't make rimfire ammo do they? Well CCI, leader of the rimfire pack, churns out about 4 million rounds of "unobtainium" per day. That is one out of the four majors (Winchester Olin, Remington UMC, Hornady, CCI/Federal ATK) producing 28 million cartridges each and every week.
Do you really think folks shoot it all up? I don't think so. When our shooting public cuts back on .223, .308, .45ACP, and 9mm consumption they usually use a .22 for cheaper practice. But these days more folks are buying and fewer are actually shooting as they don't know when store shelves will be replenished. I saw at the Tulsa Gun Show folks asking (and getting) $80 per 500 round brick. That is four times retail, yet folks buying it seemed happy that it was available. Economists refer to this as the price elasticity of demand. When everybody wants the same thing at the same time prices will go up as a way of rationing the scarce item and enriching those lucky enough to have a decent quantity on hand.
Those with a clear memory will remember that such activity inevitably leads to market saturation. Gasoline, Beanie Babies, or bullets: if enough money is poured into one area, the market will eventually settle back down to rational levels. It has been almost 8 months now, so I predict in 5 months or less we will see an ocean of ammo available to those still needing more. By then a full year will have elapsed since the Newtown Massacre, all the preppers will already be stocked up, and the ammo entrepreneurs currently "flipping it" won't have any suckers left.
As noted earlier, a shortage of any of the major defense calibers in turn leads to a .22LR shortage. One should be seeing more and more .223 available this summer. That is a welcome sign that we are over the hump. Without a ban on AR-15s we see a trickle down effect. Less folks are interested in plunking down $1200 on a complex rifle, and those that did have eased up on their vulture-ish shopping habits. I'm really hoping the rest of the firearms get caught up this fall, so we can have more ammo for all starting early January.
Most everyone in this business would agree that we'd sure settle for a slow down.
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September 21, 2014
Update: All major calibers such as .223, .308, .45ACP, and 9mm are readily available; still difficult to obtain .22LR except online or gun shows (paying $50 or more per brick). All major variants of AR-15 are now available at rock bottom prices and most wholesale distributors are stocked deep on guns of all variety (excluding S&W revolvers, Colt SAA, and limited run items). This is a buyer's market if ever there's been one. I think demand will remain steady for the foreseeable future, with no major legislation proposed or implemented.
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